World of Tanks Win-Rate Simulator

Simulate the effect of your own win-rate in theoretical battles where the other 29 players have random win-rates between 35% and 65%. This JavaScript demonstration is intended to demonstrate the statistical fact that one constant element will have far more effect on outcome than fourteen random elements over time, because the random elements have a “cancelling out” net effect, given a sufficiently large sample size.

To test this, enter your “nominal” win-rate, ie- your estimate of the likelihood that you will personally perform well in any given game. Then, hit the “Battle” button. As the games add up, the win-rate will slowly converge toward the number you entered. It will not match precisely, but it will show that you are the largest single factor influencing your team outcomes over a large number of games, despite the fact that you have fourteen other players on your team.

Enter your “nominal” win-rate:

Player 1--
Player 2--
Player 3--
Player 4--
Player 5--
Player 6--Wins:0
Player 7--Losses:0
Player 8--Draws:0
Player 9--Games:0
Player 10--Win-rate:-
Player 11--
Player 12--
Player 13--Max Win Streak:
Player 14--Max Loss Streak:
Player 15--